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IIF/2004/PR-REL 8th July, 2004
 
Reactions on Union Budget 2004 : Aman Agarwal

Overall the budget is a good, taking care of all the sections of society.

The schemes launched for taking care of a “Senior Citizen Dignity” by providing for savings instruments are welcome.

The education cess of 2% is welcome. Professor J D Agarwal (Director, IIF) had suggested the same to the then FM, Dr. Manmohan Singh, in (FE July 22, 1991). This would facilitate more growth of educational facilities and empowerment of the masses. Some of the other facilities like enhancement of educational loan without collaterals for post graduate education would enrich the excess.

In agriculture, the honourable FM, has tried to enhance the productivity side with the launche of new schemes to provide for diversification, have sustained growth of 7-8%, involvement of private initiative, water management, flood control and credit availability. However there has been no comment on the possibilities of revenue generation or agricultural market enhancement to sell our agro / agro-based products internationally.

The Kissan Credit Card / credit enhancement schemes would facilitate growth and agriculture. The suggestion for single market for agriculture products is very useful. However the government may want to initiate contacts with neighboring countries and in the Asian region for export of Indian agricultural product and import of agriculture technology to bring growth to the sector. The agricultural insurance / weather insurance would facilitate reducing losses in the agriculture. (also suggested by Prof. Aman Agarwal, Professor of Finance, Indian Institute of Finance, 2001, 2002)

The banking sector has been facilitated by relaxing norms to invest in the capital market. This would enhance liquidated both in bank and capital markets. The increase in the shareholding of FDIs in Insurance (49%) / Aviation (49%) / Telecomm (74%) would facilitate more foreign exchange reserve generation and technological improvement within these sectors.

The Food Swap Program against the food shops is welcomed. The implementation of the program is a big challenge. The Debt Swap Scheme for the states would facilitate reduce fiscal deficit from around 10.1% (Centre and State combined).

Finance Minister’s introduction of Tax Incentive schemes and No tax for people earning upto Rs. 1 lakh is welcomed.

The reduction of custom duties and excise would facilitate more growth opportunity and empowerment of the masses. However they would need to see that the benefit is duly transferred the masses by the industry.

The statement of the Finance Minister dream to wipe out revenue deficit by 2008-09 seems to be over optimistic. The Ministry of Finance and the RBI should see that the inflation rate is kept under control around 5% and that India has a sustained GDP growth rate of about 7.5 % to 8.5 % during next 3 years. Also they need to see that the fiscal and revenue deficit is kept under control / limits keeping in mind the socio-economic upliftment of the society. It is vital to note that most of the developed nations worldwide have a fiscal deficit of 5 to 6%, so for developing economy like India a Fiscal Deficit of 6 % to 7 % is sustainable.

The budget will give boost to industry and generate confidence amongst the masses and hence bring forth the desired result, if implemented and governed effectively. The budget is expected to raise the standard of living of the common man
.

Aman Agarwal
Director (Offg.)
Indian Institute of Finance
Ph : 27136257, 27136437, 27451212

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