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IIF/PR/2003 27th February, 2003
 

Economic Survey 2003 Reactions
by
Professor J.D.Agrawal
Chairman & Director, IIF
Chif Editor, Finance India

 

Economic Survey 2002-2003 released today preseted a very realistic outlook of the eonomy for the year 2002-03 as compared to the mid year review which war full of shokes and presented a very pessimistic view feels Dr, J.D. Agrawal, Chairman of, India institute of Finance , Economic survey as clearly outlined the achievement of india's economy during the year 2002-03 and fives to all those who have had apprehensions about the performence of India's economy, feel Dr. Agarwal.

Accroding to Prof. Agarwal the froth rate of 5.6 per cent or 2001-02 fores reserves for 17 million doller, Rupee gaining strength by 2 per cent, easy liquidity / cash reserve ratio droping below 5 per cent , BOP record surplus an increase in exprots of Automobiles, Software Gems and Jewellery are positive features of the survey. The infrastructure development particularly construction of 10,00 rural roads addiotin of 24 million tone refining rate being up to 17 per cent will make India march Forward at a faster rate, according Dr, Agarwal.

Although a consolidated fiscal deficit of 10per cent of GDP and Center fiscal deficit proportion of GDP estimated 5.9 per cent 2001-02, may be considered to be high and a cause of concern yet for a developing country like India where a larger investement is to be made in building up infrastructure and the capacity of the eonomy and in the current economic scenario of low inflation of 3% and high saving rate of 24% and BOP surplus it should not cause worries, according to Dr. Agarwal.

However, what is of serious concerns is the increase in the share of consumption expenditure in total center expenditure to more then 23 persent in 2002-03.While the government and the Finance Minister have been seized with this problem and made government and the last budget about the controling centre government expenditure yet it has gone up, according to Dr. Agarwal. There are large areas of wasteful expenditure in which effective step should have been taken so as to reduce the fiscal deficit both of the Center and the State Government , accroding to Dr. Agarwal.

There wan an urgent need during the year to control food, fertilizer and petroleum subsides particulary after dismantling APM in the petroleum sector and food.

Dr. Agarwal strongly feels that the government should have taken effective steps to allow shortage for captial receipts. Accroding to Dr. Agarwal there wan no justification for higher budgetary support to UTI to benefit few million subscriber of US 64 at the cost of rest of the country , which include 26 per cent people living below the poverty line.

Dr. Agrwal appreciated Economic Survey stating that the 10th Five Year Plan annual average groth rate fixed at 8% is contrast to what was stated in mid year review .Dr. Agarwal has also welcomed the issues and perfomance outline in the economic survey and te government's intention necessary steps in that direction.

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