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March 19, 1992

 

 

Inflation may settle around 8-9 per cent
Our New Delhi Bureau

 
THE PROPOSAL in the Union budget for 1992-93 to allow gold import will help the government counter the menace of black money and fight inflation. Besides, the move will yield Rs. 750 crore in customs revenue, provide jobs to gold smiths, and boost exports of gold ornaments.

These views were expressed by Dr. J D Agarwal, director, Indian Institute of Finance, during a panel discussion organised by the Institute of Economic Studies here at the India International Centre.

On the future macro-economic scenario, the professor said the economy would grow at around four per cent , and it would be possible to attain a single digit inflation rate of 8 to 9 per cent.

Dr. Agarwal lauded the budget as one intended to help people from, all walks of life, but expressed his dissatisfaction with the inadequate provision for infrastructure and social service.


He lelt that the budget should have attempted at removing the implicit subsidies given to higher education, irrigation and electricity, in a phased manner.

On the revenue generation front, Prof. Agarwal said the government should have focused more on generating non-tax revenues. He, however, welcomed the introduction of presumptuous tax on shopkeepers, which is expected to net Rs 140 crore.

He also lauded as meaningful rationalisation and simplification the proposal to club the tax reliefs under 80 CCA and 80 CCB with section 88.

This move along with the proposal to take into account a minor’s income for computing purposes would bring about one lakh more tax payers in the tax net, without affecting the poor and the lower middle class, Dr. Agarwal said.

The professor, however, expressed his reservation on how far the government would be able to push through its personal tax rationalisation package, and said that it would restore some of the earlier reliefs in due course.

Moreover, Dr Agarwal criticised the budgetary move of withdrawing relief under section 80L. He also said that the government should not have reduced the carried forward depreciation/ investment allowance by one-third.

Instead, it should have introduced investment allowance for the corporate sector to provide a stimulus to growth.

According to Dr. Agarwal, the government should have come out with a scheme to increase productivity of the debt it owes so as to reduce the burden of interest payment in future.

Mr. Jaipal Reddy, of Janata Dal and Mr. R N Lakhotia, tax consultant, were the other participants in the panel discussion.

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